How deadly is COVID?
Contrary to what may people claim, the COVID-19 pandemic is real, and the delta variant of the virus is highly infectious. Local statistics provided by press releases from the Green River District Health Department show the highly contagious nature of this strain of the coronavirus.
From August 2 to August 26, 2021, 153 people in Hancock County contracted the virus, and six people required hospitalization, but no additional deaths as of 6 p.m. August 30, 2021. In fact, according to information from the GRDHD, the last death in Hancock County from the coronavirus happened sometime between March 17 and March 22, 2021. Currently, the Hancock County death toll stands at 16 persons.
With no death occurring in the past five months, it brings up the question of exactly how deadly is the coronavirus?
Is it deadlier than the “Spanish Flu” pandemic in 1918-20? How does the death rate compare between the two pandemics? The following information consists of much technical data and numbers, but it is important information for people to know.
The Green River District Health Department contains a link to the Kentucky Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard. This dashboard parses and slices the data into numerous categories including cases by age and death by age groups. The data shows that the determining factor in death from COVID-19 is age, specifically old age. The data for this story came from the dashboard on Friday, 27th.
It is well known that Kentucky is one of the unhealthiest states in the country, with high rates of obesity, heart disease and diabetes; the overall death rate from COVID-19 in Kentucky is 1.4-percent.
As of August 26, 2021, 557,835 Kentuckians contracted the coronavirus, with 7,667 people dying from the virus. When looking at the deaths by age group, 90-percent of the deaths from COVID-19 in Kentucky, 6,900, happened in the 60-year-old-plus age group, which means less than 800 people younger than 60 died from COVID in Kentucky.
A breakdown of the data shows that as of last Friday, 20,800 people in the 80-plus age group contracted COVID-19 in Kentucky, with 3,500 deaths. This number translates into an age 80-plus death rate of 16.8-percent, by far the highest death rate from COVID.
In the age 70-79 group 34,400 people contracted COVID, and 2,100 of them perished from the virus, which translates into a death rate of six-percent. The age 60-69 group data shows 58,300 people contracted COVID-19, and 1,300 people died. This number translates into a death rate of approximately 2.2-percent. The age 60-plus age group accounted for 20-percent of all COVID cases, but 90-percent of the deaths.
The death rate from COVID drops significantly for each age group breakdown from this point onward. The dashboard data shows 77,700 people contracted COVID-19 in the age 50-59 group, and 503 people died. The data shows a death rate of .0063-percent. The death rate drops even lower for the age 40-49 group. 82,900 people contracted the virus in this age group, and 180 people died. This data translates into a death rate of .0022-percent.
The age 30-39 group shows an even more significant decrease in the death rate from COVID. The dashboard data shows 87,000 people in this age group contracted COVID, but only 49 people died. This information translates into a death rate of .00056-percent.
The 20-29 age group contracted the most cases of COVID with 100,200 people contracting the virus, yet only 13 people in this age group died from it. This number translates into a death rate of .00013-percent. In the age 0-19 group, 96,300 people contracted the virus, and approximately 22 died. This number translates into a death rate of .00023-percent.
As the data shows, the determining factor in mortality from COVID is old age.
The older a person, the higher the change of dying from COVID. The younger a person is, the less chance he or she has of dying from the disease.
According to national statistics, 634,157 people in the United States died from the COVID-19 virus. Based on a population of 331,449,281 as of the 2020 census, the overall death rate of COVID-19 is less than two-tenths of a percent. How does this figure compare to the so-called “Spanish Flu” pandemic of 1918-20? The data shows the 1918 pandemic, based on the death rate, proved more deadly.
In 1918 the U.S. population totaled approximately 103 million people, and 515,000 people died from the “Spanish Flu.” These numbers translate into a death rate of one-half of a percent.
The purpose of this article is not to belittle the current pandemic, or to say it is not a serious health threat because it is to people age 60 and over. The purpose is to give people factual information to help allay fears.
By Ralph Dickerson
